Understanding longevity predictors

Longevity research & understanding life expectancy 

Researching longevity can be tricky because it requires studying people over long periods of time, but clear answers are emerging from research that began decades ago. 

• A 2021 study by researchers from medical institutions across Europe tapped into large-scale genome databases to compare genetic variants between 11,262 people who reached the 90^th percentile of longevity (often age 90 or older) and 24,483 who didn’t make it past the 60th percentile (an average lifespan). 
• A 2022 study led by Duke University researchers analyzed 1,500 blood samples and participant questionnaires from a 1980s longitudinal study (repeated over time) of people 71 years or older. 

Both teams found high levels of HDL (high density lipoprotein) cholesterol to be a leading life expectancy predictor, with Duke specifically calling out Small HDL, the smaller-sized particles within HDL. Often nicknamed “good cholesterol,” HDL removes other types of cholesterol from the bloodstream. Though more research is needed, smaller particles may be the ideal size to clear away inflammation-causing molecules. HDL levels may be increased through aerobic and resistance exercise, a Mediterranean diet with healthy fats (e.g. olive oil, nuts, fish), and weight loss. 

In addition, the European genetic study identified higher educational levels as a longevity predictor (yes, educational attainment has a genetic component), and the Duke study found physical function (the ability to carry out common physical activities as we age) to be one of the most consistent life expectancy indicators.  

Physical fitness and lifespan

Longevity-boosting physical fitness has many components, and research continues to point to these as lifespan indicators: 

• VO2 (volume of oxygen) max - Measures how effectively our bodies take in oxygen during a workout. Higher levels are consistently linked to better metabolic health, a lower risk of heart disease, and a longer lifespan. 
• Muscle mass - Measures the total amount of skeleton muscle in our bodies. Keeping this in great shape helps us maintain bone density and the ability to perform physical activities. 
• Grip strength - Measures the force we can use to grip an object. Grip strength and longevity go together because this measure is a surprisingly accurate predictor of overall physical endurance. 
• Balance and mobility - The ability to maintain good posture and flexible movement is key to preventing dangerous falls in older adults.  
• Cardiac health - A strong heart and circulatory system improves fitness and endurance, reducing the risk of heart disease, stroke, and more. 
• Respiratory health - Lungs that efficiently deliver oxygen throughout our bodies help us produce needed energy and protect against disease.  

Social & emotional well-being and their impacts on longevity 

Physical health is only one dimension of wellness. The Harvard Study of Adult Development, the longest running longitudinal study of adults ever conducted, also brought to light the powerful benefits of social and emotional well-being.  

Researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital began studying 268 Harvard sophomores in 1938 during the Great Depression, later expanding the research to include their offspring. A cohort of Boston inner city residents was added in the 70s, and the wives of both (initially all-male) groups were brought in more than a decade ago. 

Today, the Harvard study incorporates up-to-date analysis like DNA testing and MRI scans, which could help researchers even better understand the link between deep social connection and longevity.  

Risk factors that impact life expectancy 

Studies consistently highlight major threats to longevity that should also be on our wellness radar.  

Physical conditions that pose risks include: 

• Heart disease - This leading global killer strikes most often through heart attacks (reduced or blocked blood flow to the heart) and heart failure (reduced ability to pump life-giving blood).   
• Type 2 diabetes - This chronic condition deposits sugar (glucose) in the bloodstream instead of utilizing it for energy – which can lead to heart, nerve, and kidney damage if unmanaged. 
• High LDL cholesterol and triglycerides - Unlike HDL cholesterol, LDL contributes to plaque buildup in arteries. Too many triglycerides (which store unused calories for future energy use) can harden arteries. Both are linked to heart disease, and triglycerides to pancreatitis.  
• High blood pressure (130/80+) - Overworks the heart and arteries, raising stroke and clot risks. 
• Obesity (BMI 30+) - Excess body fat can raise disease risk and lower quality of life. 
• Poor metabolism - Poor metabolic function means the body takes longer than it should to break down nutrients and turn them into the fuel we need for good health. 

And longevity-busting factors tied to lifestyle and social environment include: 

• Smoking - Fuels cancer, heart disease, COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) and more; a single cigarette may take 20 minutes off life expectancy.  
• Alcohol abuse - Linked to liver disease, cancer and accidents. Recent studies even question whether there is a “safe” level of alcohol consumption. 
• Poor diet - Processed foods, sugars, and unhealthy fats contribute to conditions like obesity, heart disease, and Type 2 diabetes. 
• Sedentary lifestyle - A life of minimal activity and exercise has been tied to obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. 
• Loneliness - Along with social isolation, loneliness seems to boost physical and cognitive decline to a degree that has been compared with smoking. 
• Socioeconomic stress - Chronic financial strain, poor nutrition, and limited access to healthcare shorten lifespans, especially among those with lower education levels. 

Unfortunately, we can’t control all of these risks, but many can be managed or prevented by prioritizing regular exercise, a healthy diet, and strong social ties to heighten our quality of life.

Understanding predictors of longevity 

Pursuing longevity means knowing how to shape our future by understanding and activating longevity predictors identified by scientific research.  

Multi-decade studies encompassing genetics, bloodwork, and participant questionnaires have identified higher levels of HDL cholesterol as one such life expectancy indicator. Other confirmed longevity indicators include physical fitness, which can be broken down into important measures like grip strength, VO2 (Volume of Oxygen) Max, and muscle mass. The Harvard Study of Adult Behavior – the world’s longest study of adults – discovered that one of the most consistent predictors of healthy aging and mental well-being was maintaining happy social relationships.  

It’s also vital to watch out for proven physical risks like heart disease and Type 2 diabetes, choosing a non-smoking lifestyle, and good nutrition. Longevity seekers have science on our side when we prioritize healthy diet and exercise while strengthening social ties with friends, family, and loved ones that will last us a lifetime.